APCOM

If current trends will keep steady, by 2026 Milano will become a metropolis populated by elderly people, with a low birth-rate and growingly multiethnic. According to the estimates made by the Statistics Section of the city council, based on data collected in 2006, in twenty years the population won't have changed from the quantitative point of view. However, its composition will be very different.

The survey considers the reproductive behaviours, the mortality rate and the migratory movements registered in the last few years, which can also be assumed for the future. Among the tendencies emerging from the results' analysis, the substantial stability of Milanese population: inhabitants will still be 1,300,000, families around 652,000. The lower birth rate, 1.3 children per family, will be balanced by migratory flows, which will take to the city around 130,000 people. Moreover, the male population's higher life expectancy will bring to a decrease of the number of widows, so elderly couples could benefit from a 50% increase.

The lower birth rate will also involve the rise of the citizens' average age: in 2026 the group of people between 55 and 60 years old, the generation born around 1970, will grow. Over-90 will be doubled with respect to 2006. Finally, the research hasn't taken into account two important elements. First of all, over the years the meaning of word 'elderly' will change, considering the significant prolongation of average life, both the work and the social one. Besides, Expo 2015 (which will offer 70,000 new jobs) could deeply modify both the economic and the social tissue of Milano.